What are the chances of a high school athlete making it onto college-level teams? Overall, statistics reveal that approximately 8.1% of high school students who participate in varsity sports proceed to become college athletes, with less than 2% earning the opportunity to play for NCAA I schools. Delving into the numbers, Think Academy conducted a comprehensive analysis of athletes in high school and college, leading us to identify the top three sports for both male and female students.

Men’s Top 3 Summary & Highlights

Lacrosse, Baseball, Ice Hockey

• Lacrosse players have the highest chance of getting into college varsity teams and into Division 1 (D1) schools. 
• Among men’s top 3 sports, baseball boasts the highest number of college teams, with 1,707 men’s varsity teams nationwide.
• However, male high school baseball players do not possess a significant advantage when applying to D1 teams as the success ratio is just around the national average.
• Ice hockey players face limited options in terms of school selection. The sport is only popular in Northwestern states and the Great Lake region, resulting in only 63 D1 male hockey teams across the country.
• About 3-4 players from a typical high school male lacrosse team go on to play in college, while baseball and ice hockey teams see around 2-3 people per team. You can estimate your application success rate according to your team’s performance in regional games and your individual ranking within the team.

Women’s Top 3 Summary & Highlights 

Ice Hockey, Lacrosse, Soccer

• Female ice hockey players have a great advantage in college application. More than 1 in 5 players go on to play in college, meaning in a typical high school team, the top 4-7 players get to play in college.

• However, female ice hockey players also face limited school choices as only 131 schools sponsor women’s hockey teams, with just 39 of them being D1 schools.
• Female lacrosse players enjoy a significantly higher chance, twice the national average, of being selected for D1 teams, making it a favorable sport for college opportunities.
• Among women’s top 3 sports, soccer provides the most school options, with 1,670 universities sponsoring women’s soccer teams.
• On a typical high school female ice hockey team, approximately 4-7 players continue their athletic journey in college. For lacrosse teams, the number ranges from 3-4 players, while for soccer teams, it drops to 2 individuals per team. You can estimate your chances of success in the college application process by considering your team’s performance in regional games and your individual ranking among your peers.

Men’s Top 3

🥇No. 1 – Lacrosse

Over 15% of male high school lacrosse players go on to compete in college-level teams. This percentage is nearly double the national average. This means that about 1 in 7 lacrosse players can secure a spot in college as an athlete. In an average-sized lacrosse team with 22-28 players, the top 3-4 players on the team should consider pursuing college athletes.

For students targeting D1 schools, lacrosse remains their safest bet, with the highest chance of 3.2% playing in D1 teams among all male teams. The ratio is 65% higher than average.

Across all states, there are 463 men’s lacrosse college teams, with 141 in NCAA I. While the numbers may seem relatively small compared to sports with thousands of teams nationwide, lacrosse has a strong presence in renowned universities with D1 sponsorship.

Notable D1 lacrosse schools include Harvard University, Princeton University, Yale University, Johns Hopkins University, University of Pennsylvania, Duke University, Dartmouth College, Brown University, Cornell University, and Georgetown University.

With a higher chance of making college rosters and a shorter list of prestigious universities to choose from, lacrosse stands out as the sport with the highest value when it comes to admissions.

🥈No. 2 – Baseball

Baseball holds the second highest percentage of high school players, with 12.43%, continuing their athletic journey in college, surpassing the national average by over 1.5 times. In other words, in a typical team of 14-20 players, approximately 2-3 individuals can pursue college opportunities through baseball.

Numerous colleges sponsor baseball teams, offering a wide range of options for aspiring players. There are 1,707 schools with baseball teams, including 305 in Division I. This provides students who excel in baseball with a greater pool of choices.

However, for those specifically targeting D1 schools, the admissions rate for high school baseball players is only 2.3%, which is in close proximity to the national average of approximately 2%. Several other sports, such as football, water polo, ice hockey, and swimming and diving, offer higher chances of admission to D1 schools.

If you’re aiming for a top university, baseball does have some appealing D1 options, including Harvard, Princeton, Yale, Stanford, Vanderbilt University, Rice University, UC Berkeley, and UCLA. Just brace yourself for intense competition as you strive for these opportunities!

🥉No. 3 – Ice Hockey

About 10.2% of high school ice hockey players transition to college teams, indicating that 2-3 players from a varsity team of 20-30 members can continue their hockey journey in college.

Hockey, being a team sport played on ice, requires training on professional ice-skating rinks equipped with proper lines and markings. As a result, the sport is significantly more popular in Northeastern states and the Great Lake region compared to the South.

Out of the 189 universities that sponsor varsity hockey teams, a majority of 175 are located in the Northeastern and Great Lake states. Notably, there are 33 universities in New York and 32 in Massachusetts that support hockey teams, while Michigan and Minnesota each have approximately 17 schools.

In total, there are 185 men’s ice hockey teams nationwide, with an average of 30 players on each team. This makes hockey a suitable option for students aiming to study in Northeastern states. Close to 2.5% of high school hockey players go on to join NCAA Division I teams. Men’s ice hockey is D1-sponsored by many prestigious universities, including Harvard, Princeton, Yale, Dartmouth, Brown, Cornell, and Boston University.

In conclusion, while ice hockey has a strong regional characteristic, that may not appeal to everyone, its chances of making it to college rosters and the list of reputable schools offering sponsorship are tempting. Therefore, if you enjoy (or can tolerate) the Northeastern states or nor’easter weather, ice hockey could be an excellent sport to pursue!

Women’s Top 3

🥇No. 1 – Ice Hockey

When it comes to female high school athletes, ice hockey players have the best chance of playing in college and in NCAA I teams. Their odds of playing in college are as high as 21.5%, which is more than double the 8.1% average across all sports. This means out of a high school varsity team consisting of 20-30 players, the top 4-7 players can continue to play in college varsity teams.

Female ice hockey athletes also have the highest ratio of entering NCAA I teams, with 1 in 23 plays making it into D1 schools, meaning in a team of 20-30 players, the top-performing 1-2 students have a strong shot.

Women’s ice hockey also shares the weather-location characteristic with men’s hockey teams. There are 131 women’s hockey teams, most of which are located in Northeastern and Great Lake states. Some of the top schools with D1 women’s hockey teams include Harvard, Princeton, Yale, Dartmouth, Brown, Cornell, and Boston University.

🥈No. 2 – Lacrosse

For female players, lacrosse remains high on the chart, with 14.2% continuing to play in college teams, This percentage is only slightly lower, by less than 1 percentage point, than that of male players. Across the United States, there are 594 women’s lacrosse teams, with an average of 25 players per team. 1 in 7 female high school lacrosse players get into college as an athlete. In a typical team of 22-28 players, the top 3-4 players have a favorable chance of continuing in college.

What’s especially notable about lacrosse is that female players have a significantly higher chance of making it onto NCAA I rosters. As many as 4.2% of high school players enter D1 teams, which is more than double the national average and nearly triple the chances of female golf players.

Additionally, it is worth noting that all Ivy League schools sponsor D1 women’s lacrosse teams. Some of the top D1 women’s lacrosse teams include Princeton, Stanford, Harvard, Yale, Berkely, Vanderbilt, Columbia University, Duke, Northwestern University, UPenn, JHU, Brown, Georgetown, Cornell, and Dartmouth. 

With an extensive list of prestigious schools selecting women’s lacrosse players from a relatively small pool of high school athletes, lacrosse enthusiasts have a remarkable advantage when it comes to gaining admission to top universities.

🥉No. 3 – Soccer

Soccer players also have a high chance of reaching college-level teams, with slightly over 10% of players continuing to play in college. This implies that in a typical high school soccer team of 18-20 members, roughly 2 individuals have a good chance of becoming a college-level athlete.

Throughout the United States, a total of 1,670 universities offer sponsorship for women’s soccer teams, including 348 teams in NCAA D1 and 432 teams in D3. The percentage of female high school soccer players making it to the D1 roster stands at approximately 2.4%, slightly above the national average.

For students who are specifically targeting D1 teams, in addition to ice hockey and lacrosse, water sports like water polo, and swimming and diving are better bets than soccer, each with 3.46% and 3.15% of players recruited into D1 schools respectively.

Among the prestigious institutions with D1 women’s soccer teams are Harvard, Stanford, Princeton, Vanderbilt, Yale, Rice, Columbia, Duke, UPenn, Northwestern, Brown, UC Berkeley, and UCLA.

Some varsity teams are extremely hard to get in. Why?

You might be wondering why tennis ranks last on both charts, with the lowest number of U.S. high school students continuing to play in college. The main reason for this is the significant participation of international athletes in college sports, which greatly affects the opportunities available for U.S. high school athletes.

Taking tennis as an example, over 60% of the available D1 roster spots are allocated to international players. This leaves limited spots for U.S. athletes. In contrast, sports with lower international participation, such as baseball, softball, and football, offer better odds for U.S. high school athletes to secure a spot on the roster.

The level of international participation is considerably lower in D3 schools compared to D1 and D2. It is estimated that the overall international participation in D3 teams is only around 15% of that in D1 and D2 combined.

As a result, the chances of U.S. high school players making it to D3 schools are generally much higher. The NCAA has the majority of its teams in Division III, and there’s a higher percentage of U.S. players on their rosters.

Reference Data Source: https://scholarshipstats.com/varsityodds

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